Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

高强度砂浆群钉连接件抗剪承载力试验

在混凝土桥面板预留孔浇筑高强度砂浆包裹群钉连接件以实现钢梁与混凝土有效结合.为了得到高强度砂浆包裹的焊钉的剪切强度及分析不同群钉布置形式对抗剪承载力的影响,进行了1组单钉基本力学试验和5组不同群钉布置形式的焊钉力学性能试验.试验结果表明:采用高强度砂浆包裹焊钉的连接方式可靠,焊钉具有较高的抗剪强度,单钉承载力平均值为197.2kN.在群钉连接件中不同的焊钉布置方式对承载力有一定影响,总体上随焊钉数量的增多,平均的单钉承载力呈下降趋势,焊钉数量最多的NS25试件,其平均单钉承载力为160kN,为单钉推出试验值的81%.此外,根据多排焊钉的荷载-滑移曲线,给出了多排焊钉的荷载-滑移关系表达式,与试验结果比较表明,所给表达式的结果与试验结果吻合较好.     

焊钉连接件抗拉承载力试验研究

为建立组合结构桥梁常用焊钉连接件的抗拉承载力计算方法,进行了高度分别为100、200、300和400mm的焊钉连接件抗拉承载性能模型试验,比较分析了高度对破坏模态、承载力和峰值分离的影响;基于国内外93个模型试验结果,比较分析了ACI 318-08、PCI 5th和CEB-ECCS等标准所建议抗拉承载力计算式与试验结果的吻合度;给出了防止焊钉拔出、边缘混凝土压裂和混凝土掀起等脆性破坏的限制条件;结合脆性破坏限制条件和延性破坏抗拉承载力计算式提出了焊钉连接件延性破坏抗拉承载力计算方法.研究结果表明:焊钉受拉延性破坏时的承载力和峰值分离约为脆性破坏时的1.5和5.8倍;ACI 318-08所建议计算式与试验结果吻合度较高;分别采用混凝土强度等级、焊钉缘端距离及焊钉高径比作为限制条件,能够防止焊钉受拉时发生脆性破坏;提出的焊钉连接件延性破坏抗拉承载力计算方法,可为焊钉连接件的延性设计提供参考.     

A Comparison of the Forecasting Ability of Immediate Price Impact Models

As a consequence of recent technological advances and the proliferation of algorithmic and high‐frequency trading, the cost of trading in financial markets has irrevocably changed. One important change, known as price impact, relates to how trading affects prices. Price impact represents the largest cost associated with trading. Forecasting price impact is very important as it can provide estimates of trading profits after costs and also suggest optimal execution strategies. Although several models have recently been developed which may forecast the immediate price impact of individual trades, limited work has been done to compare their relative performance. We provide a comprehensive performance evaluation of these models and test for statistically significant outperformance amongst candidate models using out‐of‐sample forecasts. We find that normalizing price impact by its average value significantly enhances the performance of traditional non‐normalized models as the normalization factor captures some of the dynamics of price impact. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅谈农村火灾形势及应对措施

在新形势下,加强农村特别是边远山区农村的消防工作,提高农村消防意识,已成为全面建设小康社会的要求和重要组成部分。文章通过介绍农村火灾形势,提出了改进和加强农村消防安全工作的出路和对策。     

基于WEB的试题库管理系统的分析与设计

从实际需求出发,提出了一种基于WEB的试题库管理系统模型,并设计了系统的数据库和功能结构．系统充分利用基于WEB的数据库管理技术,将命题、组卷、审查试题、生成试题库和试题保存等工作分解到教务处、教学单位（或教研室）和教师三个层次,实现人工组卷和自动组卷等功能．该试题库管理系统具有较好的实用性和通用性．     

钢筋受压黏结滑移模型

为研究钢筋的受压黏结滑移关系,采用分辨率较高的激光位移计,对一批短锚长试件进行系列推出试验研究,得到精确度较高的黏结滑移值及完整的试验黏结滑移关系曲线,描述钢筋在混凝土中的受压黏结滑移破坏全过程:弹性阶段、局部滑移阶段、滑移上升段、滑移下降段和残余段.在对试验得到的较短锚长试件推出试验结果分析的基础上,经统计回归和分析,提出钢筋的受压黏结滑移曲线模型,并与试验结果进行对比.     

连续硫化生产线安装形式及参数的选择

介绍了连续硫化生产线的安装形式及如何选择安装形式的理论依据和方法,通过Φ115连续硫化生产线的实例,详细说明了悬链线几何参数确定的理论依据,对更好的了解连续硫化生产设备有一定的指导作用.     

盐效萃取法分离环己酮-水恒沸物的研究

针对现有恒沸精馏提纯环己酮工艺能耗大的缺点,选用盐效萃取法分离环己酮-水恒沸物.测定了40℃时环己酮-水-氟化钾体系的液-液相平衡数据,用Pitzer理论和NRTL方程对液-液相平衡数据进行了关联计算,计算值与实测值吻合较好;考察了质量分数为60.0％氟化钾水溶液与该恒沸物的质量比对脱水率的影响.结果表明:当氟化钾水溶...     

强化师范院校非师范专业校外实践基地建设之对策

在校内实验室建设投入不足、实训设施缺乏的情况下,师范院校非师范专业学生的实践能力必须通过校企合作共建实践基地,借助于校外相关企业的场地和设施来实现。在现有体制下,校外实践基地建设过程中存在企业积极性不高,学校与企业之间存在“两张皮”的情况。必须在科学制定实践性教学环节的基础上,加强对校外实践基地的管理,鼓励年轻老师到企业挂职,发挥校友的作用,从制度上保证实现学校、企业、学生三赢。